金力永磁稀土行情簡報201747期(總第213期)12-25~12-29
Week 52, 2017
1. 重要新聞簡報Briefing of Important News
本周稀土市場行情鐠釹價格繼續保持小幅上漲,鏑鐵和鋱價格相對穩定。亞洲金屬網價格:鐠釹金屬價格395-405元/KG (28日百川資訊, 鐠釹金屬價格410-420元/KG ),鏑鐵合金價格1150-1180元/KG (28日百川資訊, 鏑鐵合金價格1170-1180元/KG ),鋱金屬價格3800-3850元/KG。
This week, the price of PrNd still increase slightly,DyFe and Tb continued to be stable in the rare earth market. Price from Asian Metal at this weekend presented: PrNd 395-405 RMB/KG(PrNd 410-420 RMB/KG on 28th Baichuan News), DyFe 1150-1180 RMB/KG(DyFe 1170-1180 RMB/KG on 28thBaichuan News) and Tb 3800-3850 RMB/KG.
2. 業內人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders
2017年于中國稀土業來說,是不平凡的一年。在經歷了持續兩年的低迷、下滑行情后,今年無疑是稀土價格與價值逐步回歸的一年。
2017 is a special year for RE industry. In 2017, there is no doubt that rare earth price and value is gradually increased after two year's downturn and decline.
年內,政策上的調整、國儲的推動、環保整頓、稀土打黑專項行動,都對稀土供給端產生約束,產量明顯下降,下游企業積極備貨,需求升溫,從而令價格大幅上漲。以氧化鐠釹為例,從年初的不足30萬元/噸一路漲至高的54萬元/噸,價格將近翻倍。然而后期在沒有持續的政策刺激之下,價格還是出現了滑坡。8月開始,國內稀土價格開始松動,并一路下行,直至12月才略有好轉。多數稀土產品的跌幅將近50%。因此,今年稀土整體行情呈現先揚后抑。今年輕稀土表現較好,其中,鐠釹的表現搶眼,變化也大,因為鐠釹對應的永磁下游,仍在穩步增長。
This year, the adjustment on politics,promotion of SRB,reorganization of environment protection and crackdown action of rare earth restrained the supply of rare earth. The production decreased obviously and downstream industries stock up positively, which led to the growth of requirement and rapidly increased RE price.Take PrNd oxides for example,the price increased from 300,000 RMB/T to 540,000 RMB/T,almost double when compared to the price in the early 2017.However,without continually policy stimulus,the price has slightly dropped.From August, the domestic RE price started decline and moderate growth in December.Most of the rare earth products declined nearly 50%.In a word, rare earth market has experienced increase-decline process this year.However,light rare earth performed well,especially PrNd,which contributed to the steadily growth of permanent magnet.
稀土打黑行動自2016年12月至2017年4月在全國開展打擊稀土違法違規行為專項行動。“專項行動將逐步影響稀土供應量,有效規范行業秩序。"業內人士說。 發改委、財政部、環保部、公安部等部門的人員參加了會議。與會部門表示,將進一步發揮部門合力,共同推進行業秩序整頓工作,研究解決發現的突出問題,加大聯合懲戒力度,推動《稀有金屬管理條例》盡快出臺,保持對稀土違法違規行為的高壓態勢,確保整頓取得實效。業內人士認為,此次會議透露出國家將繼續加大稀土行業的整頓力度,新一輪稀土“打黑"也將啟動。
The Rare earth crackdown carried out the special action to combat the illegal violations of rare earth across the country from December 2016 to April 2017.Insiders indicated that Special operation will gradually affect rare earth supply and effectively standardize the order of industry.Personnel of NDRC,Ministry of Finance,Ministry of Environment,Ministry of Public Security attended the meeting.The departments said they would cooperate to regularize the industry order, trash out prominent problems,strengthen penalties and promote the Regulations on Administration of Rare Metal in time. And the high pressure on rare earth violation behaviors will ensure reorganization effective implement.Insiders indicated that this meeting showed the government will continue to intensify the consolidation of rare earth industry.A new round of crackdown on rare earth will start.
今年已經開展了三次收儲,縱觀2017年稀土收儲形勢,大體呈現以下新趨勢,即收儲頻次增多,但每次的收儲規模縮減。隨著收儲價格均逐步提高,每次微幅溢價。
The SRB has carried out storage three times in 2017. Throughout rare earth storage situation, it generally presents a new trend of an increased frequency on storage while downscale each time.With the storage price gradually increased,it is slightly premium every time.
展望2018年,SMM認為,稀土行業的發展及價格走勢依舊對國家政策的依賴性較大。稀土開采指標大幅調整的可能性不大,基本仍會保持在近幾年的水平。國儲存在太多不確定性,但市場普遍對于收儲寄予較高預期。稀土打黑及環保督查將持續存在,一定程度縮減了市場供應量。需求層面,穩中有升,其中新能源汽車的快速發展帶來的釹鐵硼需求的穩步增長,將是確定并較為樂觀的。因此在供應仍有縮減空間、需求穩中向好的背景下,供需之間的差距將進一步縮小,稀土價格會繼續得支撐,SMM認為明年以鐠釹為代表的稀土價格有望繼續沖高,高達55-60萬元/噸。
SMM considers that the development and price trend of rare earth industry will still highly dependence on the national policy in 2018.Rare earth mining index is unlikely to overhaul, it will remain at the levels of recent years.The SRB has too much uncertainties, but the market still has highly expectations for storage.Rare earth crackdown and environmental supervision will continue to exist, which has reduced the market supply in some way. The demand is steadily growing,especially the rapid development of new energy vehicles,which is determined and optimistic.In the background of flexible decrease of supply and slightly increasing demand,the gap between supply and demand will be narrowed,which will contribute to support the RE price.SMM forecasts that the RE price such as PrNd will continue to increase,expects up to 550,000-600,000 RMB/T.
3. 趨勢圖(參考亞洲金屬網)Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)
2017年12月29日
Dec. 29th, 2017
提示:以上信息僅供參考!
Notes: the information above is for reference only!